Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

18 Feb 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (22 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 12:00 - 23 Feb 2022 12:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
5	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.3, 59.5
5	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	660000 people	-16.3, 58
5	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.1 million people	-17, 56.7
5	20 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	2.4 million people	-17.5, 55.7
5	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	200000 people	14 million people	-18.2, 53.1
5	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	2.3 million people	15.8 million people	-19.4, 49.4
5	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-21.6, 45.3	Madagascar

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Vohitramposina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (75 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 18 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 17:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 12:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 05:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 02:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 19:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 12:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 13:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 16:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 05:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 04:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 11:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.